Source: http://tech.blorge.c...within-8-years/At least one analyst believes Facebook will die within the next 8 years. A happy prediction to make given the recent IPO.
Eric Jackson, founder of Ironfire Capital, recently told CNBC’sSquawk On The Street what he felt lay in Facebook’s future. It doesn’t make for pretty reading, but it could turn out to be a Nostradamus-style prediction that ends up coming true. Jackson stated:
In five to eight years they [Facebook] are going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared. Yahoo is still making money. It’s still profitable, still has 13,000 employees working for it. But it’s 10% of the value that it was at the height of 2000. For all intents and purposes, it’s disappeared.
Upon first reading that quote I felt it was overstating the case, that there was no chance Facebook would ever become the next Yahoo. But then I read on and saw that Jackson clarifies his point. He believes that there have been three generations of Internet companies. The first were Web portals, which includes the aforementioned Yahoo, the second are social networking sites such as Facebook, and the third are both mobile and monetized. He continued:
When you look over these three generations, no matter how successful you are in one generation, you don’t seem to be able to translate that into success in the second generation, no matter how much money you have in the bank, no matter how many smart PhDs you have working for you. Look at how Google has struggled moving into social, and I think Facebook is going to have the same kind of challenges moving into mobile. The world is moving faster, it’s getting more competitive, not less, and I think those who are dominant in their prior generation are really going to have a hard time moving into this newer generation.
At this point even I am starting to think that yes, Facebook may well disappear within 8 years, at least if your definition of disappearing is still being as big a company as Yahoo. Yes, it’s shrinking but try telling its 13,000 employees it’s being written off as dead. They’ll wonder who they’re working for and who is paying their bills.
Facebook is going to have to evolve if it hopes to stay on top, but I personally think it’s capable of doing so. Becoming a public company is only going to serve to help Zuckerberg make the right decisions, something he has mostly managed to do to this point. And if it does all go wrong then hey, it was fun while it lasted. And there’s always Google Plus.
The problem will Facebook going into the mobile market is that they probably have nothing new to offer and there already are enough operative systems and manufacturers. They'll drop as a social network and they'll fail as a Google successor. At least Zuckerberg will have enough to live out of...