Facebook will be dead in 8 years

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At least one analyst believes Facebook will die within the next 8 years. A happy prediction to make given the recent IPO.

Eric Jackson, founder of Ironfire Capital, recently told CNBC’sSquawk On The Street what he felt lay in Facebook’s future. It doesn’t make for pretty reading, but it could turn out to be a Nostradamus-style prediction that ends up coming true. Jackson stated:

In five to eight years they [Facebook] are going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared. Yahoo is still making money. It’s still profitable, still has 13,000 employees working for it. But it’s 10% of the value that it was at the height of 2000. For all intents and purposes, it’s disappeared.

Upon first reading that quote I felt it was overstating the case, that there was no chance Facebook would ever become the next Yahoo. But then I read on and saw that Jackson clarifies his point. He believes that there have been three generations of Internet companies. The first were Web portals, which includes the aforementioned Yahoo, the second are social networking sites such as Facebook, and the third are both mobile and monetized. He continued:

When you look over these three generations, no matter how successful you are in one generation, you don’t seem to be able to translate that into success in the second generation, no matter how much money you have in the bank, no matter how many smart PhDs you have working for you. Look at how Google has struggled moving into social, and I think Facebook is going to have the same kind of challenges moving into mobile. The world is moving faster, it’s getting more competitive, not less, and I think those who are dominant in their prior generation are really going to have a hard time moving into this newer generation.

At this point even I am starting to think that yes, Facebook may well disappear within 8 years, at least if your definition of disappearing is still being as big a company as Yahoo. Yes, it’s shrinking but try telling its 13,000 employees it’s being written off as dead. They’ll wonder who they’re working for and who is paying their bills.

Facebook is going to have to evolve if it hopes to stay on top, but I personally think it’s capable of doing so. Becoming a public company is only going to serve to help Zuckerberg make the right decisions, something he has mostly managed to do to this point. And if it does all go wrong then hey, it was fun while it lasted. And there’s always Google Plus.
Source: http://tech.blorge.c...within-8-years/

The problem will Facebook going into the mobile market is that they probably have nothing new to offer and there already are enough operative systems and manufacturers. They'll drop as a social network and they'll fail as a Google successor. At least Zuckerberg will have enough to live out of...
 

Martee100

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Well, this may seem to be true but you never know what Facebook could come up with. They recently released news about their App store and they are still working hard.
 

NewDCD

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I doubt Facebook would sink on such a short time. It's only the biggest and most recognized social network there is. Brand recognition goes a looooooong way for businesses.
 

OmarFW

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I doubt Facebook would sink on such a short time. It's only the biggest and most recognized social network there is. Brand recognition goes a looooooong way for businesses.
Short time? I see it falling out as the dominant platform even sooner than 8 years. Myspace was the biggest one not too long ago. That switch is inevitable and many people are already dissatisfied with facebook's changes and privacy infringing business practices. They're only kept there because it's where everyone is currently, but that will change. It won't take 8 years either.
 

NewDCD

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Short time? I see it falling out as the dominant platform even sooner than 8 years. Myspace was the biggest one not too long ago. That switch is inevitable and many people are already dissatisfied with facebook's changes and privacy infringing business practices. They're only kept there because it's where everyone is currently, but that will change. It won't take 8 years either.
Ah, I believe you're not taking demographics into consideration. Take into account the following: myspace was mostly populated by teens and young adults, which are by nature, more tech-savvy than the previous generations that came before them. Now consider the amount of 40+ year old people in Facebook. Compare the number of grandmothers in FB with the amount of grandmothers MySpace had at any time.

I believe a good example of this is that one blog post that was talking about something facebook-related...a lot of people just typed "facebook" into their address bar, and that was the first link to hit via google search. It was a freaking blog, and people were complaining about the new "changes"! Why is it red, where do I log in now...yet it had nothing to do with Facebook.

For people like you and me, Facebook might stop being the go-to place, but for the older generations that don't really know tech, as well as the people not interested in learning that basic tech knowledge...well, that's why I see it difficult for Facebook to stop being dominant. It's kind of the same deal as with video games. The core gamers are leaving Nintendo consoles behind as their needs are not met by them, but the casual market has flocked to them thanks to their crappy singing and dancing games, that you wouldn't imagine Nintendo ever losing a console war again. They just have the biggest market now.
 
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I won't agree or disagree with the 8 year assesment this analyst has going. But I do see Facebook falliing off eventually. The same way Myspace did eventually.

Eventually, something will come along and take away Facebook's thunder. Just like they did with Myspace.
 

Creaky

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Facebook will disappear one day, wouldn't like to say when though. Even when it does go I'm sure there will be something to take its place.
 
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@NewDCD: That's a good analysis. If everyone on Facebook was tech-savvy, I think they'd have migrated over to Google+... only that's not what happened. Facebook's monopoly is bigger than MySpace's back then, and they have a much larger database, which is the most important thing in a social network; not to mention that Facebook is famous not only in the US and the UK, unlike MySpace.

Still, not everything lasts forever, and they've been heading downhill for a long time, not just when they decided to go public.
 
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NewDCD's assesment is very similar to the Windows vs Linux debate. Where Facebook takes Windows place and Linux would take Google + place.
I think Linux was never as advertised as Google+. There are so many people that haven't even heard of it! Plus, it has the reputation of being intended for developers and advanced users only, and not everyone's like that.
 

Diablo2

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The issue with social networks is that they rely on whats trendy and hip; this is their main fuel. Since people have a rather short attention span, they'll easily move on to the next shiny object as soon as it emerges. However, I do give Mark and company credit for making FB last this long now, with no signs of going away. Nevertheless, going public with their IPO was a mistake, as it won't last more than 5 to 10 years, in my opinion.
 

Epicfied

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Facebook is just another social site. Just like Myspace and other social sites that were popular, it's going to get replaced too.
This seriously doesn't surprised me.
 
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Well not to add insult to injury, but Facebook's popularity mostly comes from Facebook games. And Facebook games have been taking a serious nosedive. So much so that Zynga's stock is getting low fast.

At first I wouldn't have believed in this Facebook dead in 8 years theory. I expect it to die yes, but the Zynga issue sure does add fuel to the already growing fire.
 

Diablo2

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The one positive thing that can keep it alive is the way so many sites have implemented a "Facebook Login" option to place comments, and so on. This is huge, as it allows FB to virtually leech onto so many businesses for the long term.
 

NewDCD

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The one positive thing that can keep it alive is the way so many sites have implemented a "Facebook Login" option to place comments, and so on. This is huge, as it allows FB to virtually leech onto so many businesses for the long term.
Good call. Facebook integration is freaking widespread. Another reason I see Facebook still being strong for a while longer.

Pretty sure they realize they could vanish off the map eventually, so features like that secure their place for a bit longer.
 
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Technology changes rapidly. Its very hard to say which will get plus & which will minus.
Anything new & unique feature may lead any type trend in Internet Industry. Facebook rise is the example of this.
 

mudrock

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Of course it will be dead in 8 years. So will twitter and most of the other big sites. There are some 10 year olds right now outside on the playground who wil be building the next best thing in a few years. Just like everything else, people will lose interest and will want to use something else.
 
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People have to know the difference between dead and obscure.

People like to say Myspace is dead. But it's not dead, it's just in obscurity right now. Myspace isn't what it once was. But it does have 25 million users strong.
 
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